The Awesome Science of Chinonomics

If you ask me to name the one thing that makes the United States the most powerful and influential country in human history...  I don't answer its military. Even though the U.S. defense budget is staggering. I don't answer its rule of law. Even though the U.S. ranks very high in the world .  I don't answer its living standards. Even though the U.S. ranks in the top 5  in economic freedom. I don't answer its cultural inclination to dominate and conquer faraway lands , nor the facility (and most importantly, the willingness ) of its citizens to move within its borders in search for a better future. Laudable as that may be.   Even if the % of movers has decreased since the 90's, close to 17MM people moved within the US in 2017 alone.  That's almost  the equivalent of the Netherlands, or Ecuador, or Senegal moving houses in 12 months  🤯 .  I would not even answer its marvelous capacity  to take in immigrants from all other the world for mor...

Knowledge accumulates throughout generations. It travels through time as long as there is always someone at the other end of the arrow of time to absorb it, assimilate it and apply it. Language helped it transcend --first in oral traditions , then in written form. Sure, there were some instances of miscommunication between some generations and knowledge stalled at times, but generally speaking, knowledge compounds itself. It exhibits the same exponential behavior as wealth. For early forager humans, the knowledge to conquer our environment (learning about medicine plants, edible roots, game migrating patters) was as valuable then as it is today to learn what's the next meme stock being hyped on reddit.  At the beginning the band forager culture fomented cooperation. To share what early foragers gathered/hunted was the rational thing to do. After all, the volatility of your returns (one day you'd have a good kill, but then days would go by without a catch) pushed you to share ...

Tú y yo no somos mas que diminutas hormigas, peleando contra el desorden de nuestro alrededor, en medio de un universo que tiende al caos. Desde nuestro insignificante y unilateral punto de vista (el humano), siempre estamos tratando de minimizar sorpresas. Ese fue el cerebro que la evolución nos regaló.    Y cuando las sorpresas aparecen,   aprendemos , esperando aplicar lo aprendido en nuestra próxima interacción con nuestro entorno, con la esperanza de sobrevivir. Bueno, tal vez no seamos "nosotros" como tal, sino nuestros genes, porque nosotros en realidad solo somos el vehículo que nuestros genes usan para perpetuarse a la posteridad.  Si tan solo nuestra lucha contra el desorden fuera exenta de consecuencias. Cada vez que tratamos de reducir el desorden a nuestro alrededor (de reducir entropía), para reacomodar nuestro ambiente de tal manera que sea menos hostil para nosotros, en realidad estamos incrementando el desorden (la entropía) en el universo en general...

We are nothing more than little ants fighting disorder in our immediate environment living in a universe trending towards chaos. From our insignificant, unilateral (human) viewpoint, we are always striving to minimize surprises. That's the brain evolution gifted us . And when surprises appear, we learn , hoping to apply what's learned in our next interaction with our environment, so we hopefully survive. Ok, maybe not "we" , but our genes, because we're really just the vehicle genes use to perpetuate themselves into posterity.  If only us little ants' fight was costless. Every time we strive to reduce disorder locally (reduce entropy), and rearrange our environment so that it's less hostile to us, we actually increase disorder (entropy) in the overall universe. When we chop down forests to dedicate that land for human crops, and we reduce the threat of going hungry (reducing entropy from humans' perspective), we actually increase entropy at the planet...

Once upon a time there was this Republic called Quirkistan. It was ruled by a hyper intelligent elite, possessors of the most shiny and reputed tokens. These tokens vested in them utmost respect and reverence, as only the most brilliant, capable, responsible, and deserving Quirkistanis were issued them. The tokens were granted with great pomp and circumstance by velour-robed Sages in solemn ceremonies, after listening to liturgy imparted by an elevated Sage in an annual ritual of initiation so full of symbolism and self-congratulation that for many, of the recipients the initiation represented the single most important day of their lives.  How could they think otherwise? That token granted them access to the upper echelons of Quirkistan. Attaining one was akin to the assurance of a life full of opulence, comfort, and the absence of suffering. The institutions that issued them prided themselves in hand-picking their future tokenholders from the most brilliant, meritoc...

Nobody can really  take credit for having solved a problem that never happened. Any attempt at it drags you into the realm of non-existent hypotheticals and becomes moot the moment you open your mouth. This is the position leaders around the world find themselves in when trying to fight this pandemic. It doesn't matter how informed, intelligent, prescient our leaders might (or might not) be, they face the same fog of uncertainty when trying to predict the future while making decisions to fix a problem this complex. For better and worse, we're equipped with minds that can only draw on history to construct patterns when trying to face the future. And in a Bayesian dance , all we can aspire to do is to  tinker with our course of action as that fog of uncertainty chooses to spit the next piece of evidence at us. There is no other way. Leaders (simple humans* that they are) fall prey to the same  Law of Small Numbers ; forced to take action in the face of clouded, sm...